Why? Simply because it deserves it more than any other movie this year. ‘Avatar’ was a tremendous achievement. It may revolutionize cinema for its technical achievements. However, the “Best Picture” belongs to the best film of the year. ‘The Hurt Locker’ was exactly that.
Threats: Most people think ‘Avatar’ is the only threat, yet ‘Inglorious Basterds’ may pull a ‘Shakespeare in Love’ win with ‘The Hurt Locker’ may end up as this year’s ‘Saving Private Ryan’. For one thing it has Harvey Weinstein backing it up. It also has the SAG award and actors make up the largest chunk of voters in the Academy. The recent DVD release will also help boost the vote since Tarantino only gets better with repeated viewings. The race is not between ‘The Hurt Locker’ and ‘Avatar’. It’s between ‘The Hurt Locker’, ‘Avatar’, and ‘Inglorious Basterds’.
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BEST DIRECTOR
Why? She put her heart and soul into every single shot in this movie. Bigelow will make history being the first female Best Director winner.
Threats: None. There’s no stopping her.
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Jeff Bridges in ‘Crazy Heart’
Why? He’s long overdue, this may be the Academy’s only chance to redeem previous snubs. The Dude delivers one of his best performances here. A peak in a great career.
Threats: More like a minor threat but still a threat nonetheless, Colin Firth in ‘A Single Man’ . His performance was great but he will most likely end up empty handed. The nomination was his reward. A welcome to the club gesture.
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Why? Why not? It’s a big year for her with two box office hits and a good performance in a weak year of female performances.
Threats: Meryl Streep in ‘Julia & Julia’. It’s Streep’s 16th Oscar nomination but it has been decades since her last win. Meryl Streep nominations is becoming more of a tradition for The Academy but a 3rd win is unlikely..at least not for this performance.
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Predicted Winner: Christoph Waltz in ‘Inglorious Basterds’
Why? Over the past 3 years, the Best Supporting Actor award went to the best villain of the year. With Javier winning for ‘No Country for Old Men’ and Heath Ledger winning for ‘The Dark Knight’. How do you measure up with the past two great villains? Waltz managed to pull it off with a chilling performance.
Threats: None. He’s a lock.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Mo’Nique
Why? She gave a splendid performance and has a very powerful “Oscar” scene.Threats: None
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Winner: Quentin Tarantino ‘Inglorious Basterds’
Why? Tarantino’s screenplay is a work of art. This will be his second win.
Threats: Mark Boal ‘The Hurt Locker’
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Winner: Jason Reitman ‘Up in the Air’
Why? Simple. It was the best screenplay of the year, original or adpated. A perfect screenplay with great one liners and philosophies of life.
Threats: None. They may as well mail it to him now.
BEST FILM EDITING
BEST FOREIGN MOVIE
Predicted Winner: ‘The White Ribbon’
Why? The best foreign movie of the year and one of the best of 2009 regardless of any labels. This should win.
Threats: ‘A Prophet’ is the only threat here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Winner: Christian Berger ‘The White Ribbon’
Why? The toughest category to predict. Any of the nominated could end up winning. Foreign movies rarely get a nomination here but this beautiful looking movie managed to get in. I’m still confused about ‘Avatar’ being eligible with all the CGI and ‘Inglorious Basterds’ was great but not groundbreaking. You could freeze any frame of ‘The White Ribbon’ and it’ll be as beautiful as a great painting.
Threats: ‘Avatar’ obviously and ‘Inglorious Basterds’.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Winner: ‘The Young Victoria’
Why? No idea. This is a wild guess but since it got more nominations the others competing in the category, why not?
BEST MAKEUP
Why? See picture above.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEST SOUND MIXING
BEST SOUND EDITING
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST DOCUMENTARY
BEST ART DIRECTION
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted Winner: China’s Unnatural Disaster
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BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Predicted Winner: A Matter of Loaf and Death (Wallace & Gromit)
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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predicted Winner: KAVI
The Cinephile Fix 
I love that picture of Zachary Quinto as Spock(:
I agree with the major awards: Picture, Director, Screenplay (both Original and Adapted), Actor/Actress and Supporting.
Though, I wouldn’t totally hate an Inglorious Basterds upset.
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To me, Oscar season is like hunting season with big shotgun and cutthroat attitude a la NRA because many of them usually have not arrived in Korea yet. It always starts with January for potential nominees as target practice. And then, in February, I focus on nominated films I haven’t watched yet and try to shoot them all by any means necessary. And then I post my prediction.
This year, I have already put lots of bullets in Oscar ballot, with four minor ones missed. “A Single Man”, “The Last Station”, “Paris 36”, and “Ajami”. I don’t think they are crucial for prediction, although I’d really love to see Colin Firth’s heavily praised performance. I enjoyed “Crazy Heart” a lot 2 days ago, and my last Oscar movie will be “The Lovely Bones”(released here this week) tomorrow. I don’t expect much from that movie
Here’s some of my opinion.
I also think chilling “The White Ribbon” will win, but electrifying “A Prophet” has some possibility. “The Milk of Sorrow” is too much of arthouse movie and “Ajami” is not the kind of movie voters love. Dark horse is “The Secrets in Their Eyes”. Compelling mixture of melodrama, politics, mystery, murder, and dazzling moviemaking in classic structure may appeal to voters unlike these “hard” nominees. But I stick with “The White Ribbon”, with a nod to “A Prophet”. Both are great.
I came across “The Secret of Kells” last week. Very gorgeous 2D animation but it is not as powerful or profound as “Ponyo” or “Persepolis”. So winner still is “Up”, one of my biggest elevations in 2009. Maybe voters don’t like three-year win in row, but it’s hard to deny “Up” is Pixar’s masterpiece along with “Wall-E”.
In case of cinematography, I like them all, so let’s see who will win the award in American Society of Cinematographers(February 27th). It will give you some hint.
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I think the cinematography category is the most difficult to predict. What do you think will get Sound Editing and Sound Mixing? Both are between ‘Avatar’ and ‘The Hurt Locker’. Do you agree with my predictions there? If not why?
From the look of it, you seem ready to post your predictions. All you need to do is watch ‘A Single Man’ and you’ll be ready to go. Let me know when you do 🙂
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Probably I won’t be able to watch “A Single Man” before Oscar. And I think that won’t be serious problem for my prediction because we all know Firth’s nomiation itself is already reward, although there will be some bias in my preference.
I think “Avatar” will scoop both sound and sound editing because voters always like something loud and big and, above all, well-praised.
By the way, in case of Best Actress, like Mr. Ebert, I will bet my money on Bullock.
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I look forward to your official predictions, so far you seem very reliable. I think I’m taking a risk by choosing ‘Hurt Locker’ for Sound Editing and ‘The White Ribbon’ for cinematography but that’s the way I feel and hope many voters will feel too.
The winner does not necessarily have to be the loudest, ‘Transformers’ never won…neither the original nor the sequel. Last year I think ‘Slumdog’ took one. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes though.
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I know Broken Embraces wasn’t nominated, but I was wondering if you saw it, Wael, and, if you have, how it compares (if you can really compare two completely different styles) with The White Ribbon. The reason I ask is because I’m going to see The White Ribbon tomorrow, but if Broken Embraces is a lot better, then I’ll see that, instead (I’m budgeting this month, and I still might go see some Oscar shorts that are playing near where I live–man, I love the movie scene in Seattle!–so not sure if I can see both movies in the theater).
Also, I agree with your Oscar picks, though I’m hoping Meryl Streep goes for the upset and wins for her dead-on portrayal of Julia Child. I didn’t see Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, but does she really deserve an Oscar for that role?
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Watch “The White Ribbon” first if you’re interested in Oscar ceremony.
If Bullock wins, Best Actress Oscar hits the lowest point since “Erin Brockovich”. I don’t much like “Blind Side”(2.5 star) and “Julie & Julia”(2.5 star), but I have to admit both actresses are best thing in their movie, respectively. But I have some reservation about whether Bullock gives the performande worthy of Oscar. I’d rather think about her long career when I see her on stage. Oscar should go to Streep(great!) or Mulligan(luminous!) or Sidibe(amazing!). My fingers are crossed for them.
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Yeah but do you think any one of them will actually pull off an upset?
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I saw it and it was snubbed big time by the Academy. The looks amazing. I even prefer it to ‘A Prophet’. But if you forced me to choose between ‘The White Ribbon’ and ‘Broken Embraces’, I would have to go with ‘The White Ribbon’. ‘Broken Embraces’ is one of the best films of the year…’The White Ribbon’ is one of the best of the decade. At least I think so. If you love black and white photography prepare for visual masterpiece. The story is also amazing. I will probably rewatch it soon, so expect a proper review on this site soon 🙂
Sandra Bullock doesn’t deserve an Oscar. She was good…above average compared to her previous work but that’s about it. She will probably win though since this will be most probably be her first and last nomination. I don’t think she’ll ever be nominated again. I just don’t see it in her. We all know Meryl will be returning every year. That’s what the voters will think of when they fill their ballots. Personally I think Tilda Swinton gave the best female performance of the year in ‘Julia’. I also loved Mulligan in ‘An Education’.
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Didn’t see Tilda Swinton in Julia, but from what I’ve heard, it’s amazing that she wasn’t even nominated. I also think it’s possible that Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock split the vote, allowing someone like Gabourey Sidibe or Carey Mulligan to win (both of whom will certainly be nominated again), ala Adrien Brody’s win for The Pianist.
Looking at the nominees for best actress, Bullock is the only one that seems out of place. Both Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep have won before (and are awesome in everything they do, so much so that their gifts are taken for granted), while Sibide and Mulligan gave amazing performances as newcomers.
Also, I will follow your suggestion and see The White Ribbon and then, if I have some cash to burn, Broken Embraces. 🙂
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I guarantee you, you won’t be dissapointed with your choice. The split may happen, nobody knows it’s funny you mention Brody winning for ‘The Pianist’ because I have a tiny feeling that the Best Director and Best Picture may go to different movies. It’s a small feeling in me but it’s still a possibility. Bigelow is a shoe in for Best Director but Picture…while I think ‘Hurt Locker’ is the front runner, ‘Avatar’ or ‘Inglorious Basterds’ very well may end up getting Best Picture…like the year ‘The Pianist’ won Best Director and ‘Chicago’ Best Picture. or they year of ‘Shakespeare in Love’ and ‘Saving Private Ryan’..I don’t know it is possible.
I will be very happy if Mulligan ends up winning. I like it when newcomers win.
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Just saw The White Ribbon. Wish the theater I had seen it at had a better projector; the picture sometimes slightly went in and out of focus, but not often, and not enough to take me out of the film. I was so engaged in the story, that I can’t tell you what I thought of it afterwards, except to say that I really enjoyed it. I will have to see it again, and again, and again to get the full impact, and to decide whether this movie is really good, or better than really good. Thanks for the recommendation!
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You’re more than welcome 🙂 I’d love to read a proper full review from you. 🙂
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I’d have to see The White Ribbon at least once more before I feel I could properly review it, as there are layers of meaning that I’d have to deal with in my review that I could only explore in repeated viewings. For example, is the conclusion the schoolteacher reaches about who is committing these horrible crimes accurate? If so, what are the implications, and what is Haneke saying about society as a whole? And, due to what we find out later about the people (or families) who are affected most by these crimes, are the crimes justified, are they seriously misguided attempts at justice, or are they a result of what Haneke is trying to convey to his audience about the nature of evil?
I do have to say, though, that a film that engages me from beginning to end, with absolutely no dead spots, which has no soundtrack at all, and in which music as a whole is kept to a minimum, is quite an achievement.
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I know how you feel. I’m watching the movie once more before my review 🙂 The film is very deep. Will you be seeing “Broken Embraces” anytime soon?
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I might see Broken Embraces in a week or two, if it’s still playing. I have several movies loaned out from the library I would like to see first, I’m still debating whether or not to go see the Oscar Nominated Shorts: Animated tomorrow night, and this week is full of job searching, meetups, training (for a volunteer position), and an author Q&A (Rieko Matsuura, whom I’ve heard of but never read).
Having recently seen Talk to Her (and loved it), and being that Broken Embraces is playing within walking distance of my house, it depends more on whether or not I feel I can budget another $7.50 out of my shrinking supply of cash (though I am getting a nice chunk of money back from the federal government).
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A good and logical prediction.
I would put my bet on The Hurt Locker as well though there’s a part of me that’s cheering for Avatar for no better reason than that it affected me the most, emotionally. This feeling reminds me of 1995 when I secretly wished that Babe would win despite the fact that it was impossible.
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I thought “Avatar” was entertainment at its cinematic best but “The Hurt Locker” is the more powerful motion picture in my opinion.
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I think the best Actor/Actress are the worst this year. none of them gave a memorable performance. bullock will win the best actress because the best actress award is pity Oscar. the media is trying to pull a Mickey Rourke on Bridges, if he was the best this year, then god help us. Hopefully Firth and Streep will win “fingers crossed”.
the “Desert Sniper” scene is enough for Bigelow to get the Oscar.
Best Picture THL. Supp Actors are a close-case.
The Coens should get Original screenplay Oscar, Up In The Air for adapted.
OST for AVATAR. Best Cinematography for The White Ribbon.
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I’m glad we’re in agreement. And yes “the desert scene” was masterful filmmaking.
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Loving your predictions, quite close to mine in some except for best picture and best actress and am very psyched to see we at least agree on Mo’Nique for best supporting actress and of course Christoph Waltz for best supporting actor as well as Quentin T. for best original screenplay. Best foreign film for me is A prophet you went with White Ribbon in this; i hope one of us is right~ Lets go for it!!! :))
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We’ll have to wait and see 🙂 It’s nice to see drop by 🙂
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